The reason for the high volatility in sugar prices
Sugar quotations in NY (n11) and London (n5) have experienced high volatility due to several reasons. First, India has suffered a 20% reduction in its crop due to delays and reduced monsoons.
Secondly, Thailand has also experienced a 10% decrease due to weather factors. Furthermore, in Brazil, although a good crop is expected in terms of volume, it has been delayed due to late rains in regions such as Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais.
On the other hand, in Europe there has also been a reduction of around 5% in beet production. In addition, speculation in futures has also been an important factor, due to the fluctuation of the dollar and political factors.
It should also be noted that the refining premium over NY is currently at USD 140.00 per tonne levels, which makes the I 150 premium very high at around USD 100.00 per tonne on a FOBS basis. Also, the expiration of May NY in one week and the numerous rollings made have generated volatility well above normal.
In this context, March (NY n11) experienced a significant increase of USD 21.00 per tonne. It is important to note that although the timing is atypical, the drivers are identifiable.
Therefore, customers are advised to buy only the prompt quantity and leave pricing fixings until after May comes off the screen, closing June quantities on physical only.